RealClearPolitics reports that Gov. Mitt Romney has won 59 delegates to the convention. In order to win the nomination, Gov. Romney needs to win at least 1,191 delegates. Therefore, he still needs to win another 1,132 delegates.
OpenSecrets.org reports that as of December 31, 2007, Gov. Romney has spent $86,068,239 on his quest for the Republican presidential nomination. Accordingly, Gov. Romney has spent $1,458,784 for each delegate he has won thus far (or $86,068,239 /59). Therefore, at his present rate of spending, Gov. Romney will need to spend $1,651,343,171 (or $1,458,784 x 1,132) in order to win the nomination.
That's right... at his current rate of spending, Mitt will need to spend $1.6 billion to win the nomination! (And we haven't even gotten to the general election yet.)
Now let's compare this to Mike Huckabee's campaign. From the same sources listed above, we can find that as of December 31, 2007, Gov. Huckabee has spent only $7,090,087. Dividing this number by the 40 delegates he has already won, his dollar-per-delegate cost is only $177,252. Thus, with all other things being equal, he will need $204,017,052 to win the remaining 1,151 delegates.
Admittedly, Mike Huckabee has seen some difficulty in raising funds. However, it wouldn't be unusual for a presidential candidate to spend more than $200 million in a presidential race. Just look at the last election cycle: John Kerry spent more than $309 million in his bid for the White House, while President Bush spent more than $345 million. So from the perspective of recent history, Gov. Huckabee's rate of spending seems normal, leading me to conclude that he is a formidable campaigner.
The same, however, cannot be said for Mitt Romney. Despite the money he has spent--and the free media he is getting from likes of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity--Gov. Romney still cannot catch up to Sen. McCain... nor can he pull away from Mike Huckabee (who trails Mitt by only one point in the recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll--well within the margin of error).
This leads me to only one conclusion: Either (a) Mitt Romney is a poor campaigner who needs his millions to stay afloat, or (b) he is a good campaigner who is spending money like a drunken sailor, thus undermining his claim of being a "fiscal conservative." Either way, he shouldn't be the Republican nominee.
In the final analysis, a candidate with Mike Huckabee's personality and thriftiness would do quite well with Mitt Romney's money. (Yet another reason why campaign finance reform stinks.)
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9 comments:
The people the Republicans (and the Democrats too, for that matter) have to worry about are people like me--an Independent Conservative. I relinquished my Republican party affiliation when they left me--left me with the likes of McCain who is totally unacceptable in this election for so many policy reasons. So who to vote for? Unlike a lot of people who have not studied Romney but have swallowed the swill that the Democrats have put up about him, I have seen him in action on the Olympics and have examined his work in Mass. Certainly his experience in the business world is unparalleled and with our economy heading south, it becomes the critical topic in this election cycle.
Without a doubt, it is time for a Conservative Independent Party (CIP), and the nominee should be Mitt Romney. I'm going to vote for him as a write-in for president regardless who the party machines get to run for the other two. McCain as president? WHAT A JOKE! The only thing worse would be a Democrat winning, but not by much. Join me with a Mitt Romney Write In!
Romney may be a fiscal conservative for sure, but he is totally un trustworthy when it comes to social and foreign policy. He changeed positions on these issues immediately before he began his bid for the nomination. How can you trust him? He's willing to say just about anything to win. Like the most recent debate at the Regan library illustrated, he's just adopting Regan's polsitions so he can claim to be a "foot soldier in the the Regan Revolution" or some such nonsense.
If the economy is all you care about, fine. But with his recod of flip flopping, there's little reason to assume he'll keep any of his promises.
Romney is far from a conservative. So he likes to pistol whip the Mexicans every now and again and for some reason Rush and Hannity have it in for them. Other than that, socially he is not a conservative. He promises a big govt. bailout of Michigan (wow, so Clintoneske) and he already passed Hillary form of socialized healthcare.
BWAHAHAHAHA!
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/national/politics/2008/view.bg?articleid=1070748
Romney is trustworthy and that is why he moved up so well in the ranks to make millions after getting his MBA/JD from Harvard. He is far from a slouch and the smartest candidate running in either party. He did not inherit his money like the runny nosed Forbes.
His campaign finance contributions are on par with the two democrats and Romney is the only one that can generate enough money to successfully compete with the Democrats. McCain planned to lay down for them in November anyway just like Guiliani did for McCain.
Engage your brain, that is why God gave it to you instead of a racoon.
I believe the Harvid Crimson (said through tight teeth and A-Hole) endorsed Johnny! Trustworthy? BWAHAHAHAHA! Just trust him to change his position on everything.
This article is at best an incredibly silly hypothetical analysis, as is much of what Huckabee says.
Anonymous writes:
"This article is at best an incredibly silly hypothetical analysis, as is much of what Huckabee says."
Frankly, I don't see how this is a "hypothetical analysis."
FACT: Romney has spent more than $86 million.
FACT: Romney has only gotten 59 delegates to show for his money.
Therefore, either he is a poor campaigner as compared to Huckabee (who has spent only $7 million for 40 delegates), or he is a good campaigner who spends WAY too much money to acheive his ends.
What's hypothetical about that?
How about BOTH?
Romney isn't a very good campaigner (he's terrible) AND he's blowing coin like an 18-year-old swabbie with a fake i.d. in his first exotic port-of-call after slamming a bottle of Jack Daniels . . . .
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